The second quarter of 2024 saw positive global real estate returns, signaling a potential recovery after two years of losses. In the low interest rate environment, real estate values experienced a surge, with a global total return of 5.0% q-o-q in 4Q2021 and 17.8% y-o-y in 1Q2022, exceeding long-term averages. However, this trend was reversed during the tightening cycle, resulting in values returning to 2018 levels globally. We believe that the correction in the real estate market is almost complete, presenting an opportune moment for investors to reconsider this asset class.
Real estate has a history of providing stable income returns and diversification benefits over the long term, and can generate strong returns during recovery periods. For example, after the early 90’s recession, investors experienced a cumulative return of 76% over the next five years. Similarly, after the tech-wreck and the Global Financial Crisis, the five-year cumulative total returns were 98% and 86% respectively.
Evidence of a turnaround in valuations emerged in the second quarter of 2024, with global value losses moderating to 0.74%. This was the lowest quarterly adjustment in the last two years. Combining with offsetting income returns of 1.07%, global real estate achieved a positive 0.33% return, the first positive quarter since 2Q2022. Among the 15 global markets in the MSCI Global Property Index, a slight majority experienced write-ups in real estate values for the first time since 2Q2022. Eight markets, including Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Southern Europe, the Nordics, the Netherlands, France, and the UK saw value increases from the prior quarter. Six other markets saw value losses between 0.3% and 1.5%, all of which moderated from 1Q2024. The only exception was Australia, which recorded a larger write-down in the second quarter than in the first, with a 4.2% correction aligning valuations more closely with its peers.
However, changes in capital values are only one component of real estate returns, with income returns historically being the larger component. This trend highlights the importance of income returns in driving overall performance in the real estate sector and emphasizes the need for investors to consider both capital and income aspects when evaluating real estate investments.
In the second quarter, total returns, which combine capital and income returns, were positive in 12 of 15 countries in the MSCI Global Property Index. They were flat in the US (-0.09%), slightly negative in Ireland (-0.22%), and significantly negative in Australia (-3.07%). However, preliminary data from the NCREIF ODCE index (a capitalization-weighted, gross-of-fee, time-weighted return index) shows US total returns turning positive at 0.25%. With values beginning to rebound, we anticipate the positive trajectory in total returns to continue.
Asia Pacific outlook
Although real estate investment fundraising globally is showing signs of a potential rebound after two slow years, China and Japan may face challenges. In 3Q2024, China and Japan accounted for 27% and 15% of the US$7.5 billion ($10.04 billion) in cross-border inflows in the Asia Pacific region. Over half of Japan’s inflows came from global sources, while most of China’s came from within Asia Pacific, particularly Hong Kong and Singapore. However, both countries face high debt costs and other factors that may hinder a strong rebound in real estate capital inflows.
When it comes to condo investment, one must not overlook the maintenance and management aspect of the property. Condos typically come with maintenance fees that cover the maintenance of shared spaces and amenities. Despite the additional expense, these fees are vital in maintaining the property’s condition and value. For investors looking to purchase a Singapore Condo, it is worth considering hiring a property management company to handle the day-to-day responsibilities. This approach can turn the investment into a more passive venture, allowing investors to focus on other endeavors while their Singapore Condo is well taken care of.
China: Drop in Western demand
Interest in Chinese real estate from the West has significantly declined over the past couple of years due to geopolitical and economic concerns. Despite Beijing’s recent major stimulus package, it is unlikely to return soon. The market has been stagnant due to price dislocation, geopolitical risk, and lack of liquidity. Since 2021, China has faced a property crisis exacerbated by the collapse of Evergrande. Due to these risks, many European investors are avoiding China and Hong Kong, regardless of potential returns. Additionally, China’s domestic property crisis persists, with high office vacancies, low rental yields, ongoing issues with failing developers, and government interventions.
Japan: A rates outlier
While major markets like the US have cut interest rates to boost property investment, Japan remains an outlier. The broader Japanese property sector is losing allure due to interest rate policies and limited cap rate compression. In July, the Bank of Japan raised borrowing rates for the first time since 2007 to control inflation, reducing market attractiveness. This hike has prevented cap rate compression, meaning property prices haven’t risen, forcing real estate holders to rely on historically low-income yields. However, senior housing remains an attractive niche due to Japan’s aging population, with 29% of the population aged 65 or over. These assets are small, requiring an amalgamation play by investors.
Australian allure
Australia’s purpose-built student accommodation (PBSA) market has a significant potential due to a housing shortage. Only 20% of students in Melbourne and Sydney can be accommodated by universities, forcing the rest to seek private rentals. Additionally, real estate debt in Australia offers appealing risk-adjusted returns. There are funding gaps in construction, with many developers unable to secure bank financing. We are looking at sectors like logistics or PBSA, where we see long-term growth opportunities.
Stabilizing fundamentals
Stabilizing valuations and transaction market pricing both suggest that the real estate market is likely near its bottom, but these signals alone do not indicate an attractive entry point. For market pricing and valuations to increase, we would ideally see declining interest rates and strengthening property fundamentals. Most developed market central banks are beginning to taper interest rates, which should put downward pressure on financing rates, discount rates, and property capitalization rates, thereby boosting the value of real estate assets. A pullback in construction activity across sectors bodes well for property fundamentals in the medium term. With supply headwinds waning, markets with positive demand due to population growth or structural changes, such as e-commerce, are set to see increased occupancies in the medium term. Historically, occupancies and rent growth are well-correlated, providing investors with opportunities to gain from increased occupancies, rents, and the associated rise in property values.
The outlook for global private real estate appears to be improving, but the rising tide is unlikely to lift all boats. For instance, the US office market still faces significant challenges, and a broad recovery in that segment seems highly unlikely in the near term. This underscores the importance of research and selectivity when investing in real estate, as not all markets and property types will perform equally well. Rebalance with real estate
In an uncertain economic and geopolitical environment, additional risks are inevitable, but this applies to all asset classes. Over the past two years, the weight of real estate in investors’ portfolios has significantly decreased due to resetting real estate values and a record stock market. Today, investors might consider fresh allocations to the private real estate market to achieve a strategic weighting. Over the long term, private real estate offers low correlations to other asset classes, strong income returns, and a degree of inflation hedging. While there may be bumps in the road, we believe the market is beginning to look up, presenting excellent investment opportunities for savvy investors.…